On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

连续刚构铁路桥收缩徐变效应监测与分析

对连续刚构铁路桥箱梁温度场及桥梁线形进行长期、连续监测,通过主梁跨中下挠的理论与实测对比揭示了连续刚构铁路桥收缩徐变效应。对比了国内外常用收缩徐变估算模型,选择CEB-FIP徐变模型对黄河特大连续刚构桥进行了有限元分析。采用实测温度数据,以箱梁内测温度、外侧温度、顶底板温度梯度、左右侧温度梯度作为箱梁温度场的评判指标,对箱梁1年内的四季温度场分布进行分析。在基于相同温度场的条件下,通过理论值与实测值对比,发现分析成果与实测结果较吻合,说明混凝土的收缩徐变是引起连续刚构铁路桥跨中下挠的主要原因,对比结果还说明通过改善箱梁顶底板应力差能够改善收缩徐变长期效应。     

金属薄片接头表面特性研究

以不锈钢和灰铸铁材料为研究对象,在不同的压缩应力下,通过保护性四点测电阻法,测量模拟试样在反复拧紧和放松时两接触表面的微观变化规律,研究紧固件接头表面的变形.研究结果表明,被测试样表面在压应力远远小于其屈服应力时发生局部微塑性变形,可直接测量接触电阻的变化规律,对不便直接测量的局部微塑性变形进行研究.将变形时的实时在线非破坏性检测,间接运用到紧固件服御状态下的质量监控和耐用性的研究中.1     

超高功率超短脉冲发展的现状及相关科学问题

超高功率超短脉冲激光系统在其聚焦焦点附近可以实现高达1022-24 W/cm2的峰值功率输出,为强场物理实验研究,以及实验室内模拟极端环境下的天体物理条件提供了直接的实现方案.自从国际上首次提出了建造EW激光的概念,即输出总功率达到1018 W的大型激光系统后,国际上很多国家都在设计和建造大规模的超高功率超短脉冲激光系统.本文简要介绍了国际上这种规模激光系统的发展状况,并结合国内超高功率高能超短脉冲激光的发展,对超高功率超短脉冲激光系统发展中相关技术问题进行阐述.     

不同拧紧扭矩对扣件抗滑移影响试验分析研究

在施工现场随机选取10组新旧直角扣件,在不同拧紧扭矩作用下进行扣件连接节点的抗滑移破坏试验;通过试验得出新旧扣件在荷载较小时抗滑移影响不大,荷载较大时新扣件明显优于旧扣件;在拧紧扭矩小于等于30N·m时,在极限荷载作用下扣件发生滑移破坏,在拧紧扭矩超过30N·m时,扣件发生开裂破坏;同时由试验知并不是扭矩越大越好,最后提出三点建议供工程应用参考.     

粒子的散射方程、孤子解和高能统计模型

基于粒子散射的实验结果和已知的理论,首先,讨论了散射的各种方程,包括Lipkin方程、Pearson方程和Laguerre方程等,并且应用于各种散射;其次,重点研究了非线性方程,如Kd V方程、非线性统一方程等及其孤子解;然后,探讨了共振态和弹性、非弹性碰撞;进而,讨论高能散射和相应的统计模型;最后,提出不同能量的散射可能对应粒子低能具有对称性和高能具有统计性的新二重性.     

毛泽东、习近平教师素质观之比较

  ［摘要］教师素质观是中国特色社会主义教育思想的重要组成部分，中共中央历代国家领导人都高度重视教师队伍素质问题。毛泽东、习近平立足中国优秀传统文化，从中国教育的实际出发，对教师所需具备的素养问题进行了深入思考，形成了各具特色的教师素质观。两位领导人在教师的政治素质、业务素质和道德品质的认识上是一致的，认为忠诚于党的教育事业、坚持正确政治方向是教师最根本的素养；广博扎实，且不断更新、与时俱进的学识是教师素养的核心；关爱学生，以生为本是师德修养的灵魂。但两者对教师的理想信念、道德情操、教育教学能力等的具体要求不同。总体上看，两位领导人的教师素质观存在一脉相承又丰富发展的内在联系。     

2019年光学热点回眸

 随着激光的诞生，光学已渗透到人类生活的方方面面。盘点了未来可能会对人类生存及生活方式产生巨大影响的微纳光学、超强激光、成像技术、量子通信、太赫兹技术、光学通信、生物光子学、人工智能用于光学检测8个光学技术研究领域，回顾了这些领域在2019年的重大进展。     

Microstructure,mechanical properties and wear resistance of an Al–Mg–Si alloy produced by equal channel angular pressing

Microstructure, mechanical properties and wear resistance in an ultrafine-grained Al–Mg–Si alloy fabricated utilizing a combination of equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) and dynamic aging were investigated in this paper. The results indicated that the grain size of the ECAP alloy was significantly refined, i.e., to ~239 nm after three ECAP passes. Meanwhile, the yield and tensile strength of the ECAPed material reached 340 MPa and 445 MPa, respectively, while maintaining a significant uniform elongation of 14%. Wear resistance results demonstrated that the wear rate, wear depth and width of the ECAPed material decreased in comparison with the solution-treated (SST) and peak-aged (T6) conditions under a load range of 5–25 N. The adhesive wear that occurs in the undeformed specimens at 10 N does not appear in the ECAPed specimen at the same load, indicating that the ECAPed specimen delay the appearance of more serious wear mechanisms under certain loads. The cooperative interaction of high density nano-scale β" precipitates and dislocations resulted in a combination of super-high strength and good work hardening ability which suppressed the extension of cracks between the friction layer and the plastic deformation zone. As a consequence, the combination of ECAP and dynamic aging brings a significant improvement for antifriction performance of the 6061 aluminum alloy.     

基于Libmodbus的走航式海表温度传感器总线协议设计

针对船用海水表层水温观测以人工观测为主的现状，基于跨平台的Modbus库Libmodbus的走航式海洋表层水温监测系统，通过在船舶一侧布放处于船舶吃水线范围的水温传感器来采集表层水温信息。采用RS485/Modbus协议实现多站多点联网，构成分布式系统，进行海水表层温度的自动采集。上位机基于Modbus-RTU协议，并添加循环冗余校验以保证其对水温传感器的远程控制和表层水温信息采集功能的可靠性、安全性。该系统不仅运行稳定，操作简单方便，还具有可移植性和可扩展性。实验结果表明，该系统可以稳定可靠地监测海洋表层水温，实现表层水温的随船在线测量。